With a 74% chance that Bitcoin will remain below $92,000 this week, Polymarket traders are extremely pessimistic about the short-term rise of the cryptocurrency. The chart’s structural problems, and the market’s actions following the most recent violent sell-off, are reflected in this sentiment read, which is not arbitrary.
Bitcoin’s grind
The rally is still more of a reflexive recovery than a trend reversal, despite Bitcoin’s dramatic comeback off sub-$85,000 lows. Bitcoin is grinding into the underside of a dense resistance cluster on the chart. The 20-EMA, 50-EMA and 100-EMA all converge at $99,000-$104,000 and slope downward, creating a barrier that has historically required significant momentum to breach.
Bitcoin must overcome the more immediate obstacle at $92,000-$94,000, where the market repeatedly faltered prior to the November breakdown, before it can even hope to reach $100,000 once more.
Although the recovery leg is robust, it comes after one of the year’s fastest declines. Speculative bounces are typically drawn to that kind of move, but sustained conviction is not always guaranteed. Even though the volume on the rebound is higher than it was during the liquidation cascade, it is still significantly lower. This imbalance indicates that buyers are not dominant, but rather reactive.
Psychological exhaustion is probably also priced in for Polymarket traders. The market realized that the uptrend was not as strong as many had thought after Bitcoin lost its multimonth support and blasted through the 200-day region without any significant pause. It is always more difficult to recover lost levels than to keep them.
Why current recovery is shaky
Additionally, the market is waiting for confirmation that the bounce is not the result of trapped longs exiting into strength, or shorts covering. This is a more general macro hesitation. The recovery is still questionable and sensitive to another rollover in the absence of a strong push above $92,000.
The chart already indicates that Bitcoin has room to rise, but it is headed straight into resistance with no catalyst powerful enough to force a breakout. This is reflected in the 74% bearish odds. It is too soon to expect Bitcoin to surge back toward $100,000 until buyers prove they can break through the $92,000 ceiling.