Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to recover after the sharp declines it experienced in October and November. Moving within a narrow range and trying to find direction, attention is now focused on today’s FED decision, a significant macro event that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
At this point, the Fed is preparing to hold its final monetary policy meeting of the year, which is of vital importance for the future of the global economy.
Despite limited access to critical data due to the prolonged US government shutdown, the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates.
When will the Fed’s December interest rate decision be announced?
The Fed will announce its December interest rate decision on December 10, 2025 at 10:00 PM Turkish time.
Following the decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make a verbal statement at 10:30 PM.
In which direction are expectations concentrated?
Following the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in US history, moderate inflation and employment data are strengthening expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.
In money markets, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this month is at 87.6%, with expectations that rates will be lowered to the 3.5% – 3.75% range. Only 12.4% expect the Fed to keep the policy rate stable between 3.75% and 4.00%.
Federal Reserve officials are divided on the roadmap the bank should follow.
At this point, Federal Reserve officials, led by Board Member Michael Barr and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, state that the Fed needs to be cautious to avoid disrupting the fight against inflation, that they want to see more data, and that keeping interest rates stable is logical. Conversely, some officials, including Fed member Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams, express support for interest rate cuts, stating that the environment is now suitable for them.
Powell’s statements are very important!
As expected, the Fed is anticipated to cut interest rates, but signals from the policy statement and Powell’s remarks are expected to influence market direction.
At this point, Powell’s stance on inflation, growth, and interest rate cuts will guide Bitcoin and the crypto market.
Former Fed monetary policy director Bill English commented, “The most likely scenario will be a hawkish rate cut stance, where interest rates are lowered but the announcement and press conference signal that the Fed may have ended the rate cuts for now.”
Immediately following the announcement of the decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference to detail the monetary policy projections for 2026 and the reasons behind the decision. Powell’s remarks may carry far more important signals than the interest rate decision itself.
Powell stated at the October press conference that there were strongly differing views within the committee, saying, “It is not certain, it is quite unlikely, that there will be further rate cuts at the December meeting.”
*This is not investment advice.