Bitcoin bounces from Monday's worst levels, but sub-$80,000 may come next, analyst says
Cryptocurrencies stabilized after Monday’s sharp selloff, with bitcoin BTC$88,007.24 bouncing above $87,000 in the early U.S. session on Tuesday.
The largest crypto climbed about 3% from overnight lows, while ether ETH$2,957.73 was underperforming, ahead just 1.4%. Altcoin majors including BNB BNB$876.02, XRP$1.9384, SUI$1.5275 showed relative strength, gaining 3% to 6% overnight.
Crypto-related equities also rebounded after Monday’s panicky action. Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) and brokerage Robinhood (HOOD) were 3%-4% higher, while Circle (CRCL), issuer of the $78 billion USDC stablecoin, jumped 9%.
In a rare occurrence, crypto is outperforming U.S. equities, which are modestly lower across the board on Tuesday, the S&P 500 down 0.5% and Nasdaq off 0.3%.
In the news were delayed U.S. employment reports, with November data showing a troubling jump in the unemployment rate to a four-year high of 4.6%. For the moment, the weakness isn’t flowing though to trader expectations for a January Fed rate cut, which remain muted at just a 24% chance.
Dead cat bounce or something more?
Tuesday’s early action could offer some hope that bitcoin’s slide from last week’s high above $94,000 has been arrested in the short-term, but at least one analyst sees BTC making new lows soon.
Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at broker XS.com, said that BTC’s bounce from the November low of $80,000 to early December was a “corrective high,” with the next leg down likely making a fresh low below $80,000.
In a Tuesday market note, he described the current environment as “fragile,” with derivatives markets underscoring the caution. Then past two days saw $750 million in long liquidations, including $250 million tied to bitcoin futures, he noted.
“Traders are either stepping aside ahead of the data or being forced out, reinforcing downside momentum,” Hasn said. “Without a positive macro catalyst to reset sentiment, bitcoin remains exposed to a deeper flush, with sub-80,000 levels increasingly part of the near-term conversation rather than a tail risk.”
“The market now faces a short-term battle between the delay in monetary easing and the long-term attractiveness of BTC as a store of value,” said David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21shares. “Immediate selling pressure may emerge as traders re-evaluate the risk landscape, forcing BTC to defend key support zones,” he continued. “Yet, the underlying economic tension reinforces the bullish argument for smart money accumulation: where the Fed struggles to tame inflation without crashing the economy, bitcoin’s finite supply becomes an essential asset.”