After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, in line with expectations, market attention has shifted to the next FOMC meeting in January.
According to the official schedule, the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision after its meeting on January 27-28, 2026.
Recent data from forecasting markets indicates that the likelihood of a rate cut at the January meeting is considered quite limited. The majority of market participants predict that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate level. According to the data, the “no change in interest rates” scenario is priced in with a 76% probability, and trading volume for this scenario has exceeded $4.2 million.
The probability of a new 25 basis point interest rate cut is seen at 22% in the prediction markets. Approximately $4 million in trading volume has been generated for this expectation, while a significant portion of market participants believe the Fed will adopt a cautious stance in January. The probability of a more aggressive move, a 50 basis point or higher rate cut, is priced at only 2%.
On the other hand, the possibility of an interest rate hike seems almost entirely off the table. According to forecasting markets, the probability of an interest rate increase of 25 basis points or more is around 1 percent. Despite high trading volume, this scenario reflects a very low probability.
*This is not investment advice.