Arthur Hayes, a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency market, shared a noteworthy price scenario for Bitcoin.
Hayes, an investor and CIO of the Maelstrom fund, argued that the Fed is effectively printing money through a new program, suggesting that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 in the first three months of 2026.
In his latest analysis, Hayes drew attention to a new program the Fed calls “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP). While the Fed defines this program as a technical liquidity management tool, according to Hayes, the effects of RMP are identical to those of classic quantitative easing (QE) policies. Hayes stated, “Once the market begins to equate RMP with QE, Bitcoin will quickly reclaim $124,000 and move towards $200,000 in a short time.”
According to Hayes’ scenario, the Fed buys approximately $40 billion worth of short-term US Treasury bonds each month under the RMP. The Fed presents this step not as economic stimulus, but as a technical regulation to ensure the smooth functioning of the banking system. However, Hayes argues that these purchases ultimately inject new money into the market and have the same effect as past QE programs. Moreover, unlike previous QE programs, the RMP has no specific upper limit or end date.
According to the experienced investor, this mechanism works quite simply: the FED creates new money and uses it to buy government bonds. The institutions selling the bonds then use the fresh liquidity they receive to buy more bonds or lend to hedge funds. Ultimately, this money goes into financing government spending and spreads throughout the economy, driving up the prices of many assets, from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Hayes sharply described this situation, saying, “This isn’t QE. This is the money printing machine running at full speed.”
Recently, the Fed has been proceeding with interest rate cuts with cautious language. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in mid-December, the policy rate was cut by 25 basis points. However, disagreements within the committee were noteworthy; two members advocated for keeping rates unchanged, while one member favored a more relaxed monetary policy.
Arthur Hayes believes that in the short term, Bitcoin may remain stuck in the $80,000 to $100,000 range until the end of 2025. He attributes this primarily to investors still believing the Fed’s narrative that “this is not a money printing program.” According to Hayes, this perception will change by 2026, and the market will begin to price in the true effects of the RMP (Return on Investment).
*This is not investment advice.