Despite limited data, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, as expected. However, a pause in rate cuts is expected in January.
With the Fed’s expectation of keeping interest rates stable at 3.5%-3.75% priced in at 80%, there is speculation about whether it will make a surprise move.
While statements from FED members on this issue are closely followed, the latest statement came from FED Board Member Stephen Miran.
Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Miran said that the data obtained in the last few months is consistent with his global outlook and that he does not expect a recession in the near term.
“If policies are not adjusted, the risk of a recession could increase. However, I don’t foresee a recession in the near future.”
Miran reiterated that the Fed should continue cutting interest rates, but stated that he has not yet decided whether he will vote for a 25 basis point cut or a larger 50 basis point cut at the next policy meeting.
“I think it is important that we continue to steadily lower the policy interest rate.”
Miran also stated that recent data should steer the Fed towards a more dovish path, noting that inflation is getting closer to the Fed’s 2% target. He added that the latest data supports the view that interest rate cuts should continue.
Miran, who joined the Fed in the middle of the year, has expressed dissenting views at every FOMC meeting he has attended, advocating for larger interest rate cuts each time. Regarding the January 2026 meeting, Miran stated that the interest rate decision would depend on various factors and that he was awaiting data delayed due to the government shutdown.
Miran also spoke about his term of office. At this point, Miran said, “If no one is appointed to replace me by January 31st, I assume I will continue in my position.”
Stephen Miran was appointed by US President Donald Trump to complete the remaining few months of Adriana Kugler’s 14-year term on the board, following Kugler’s unexpected resignation in August.
His term ends on January 31, but Miran can remain in office until his successor is confirmed by the Senate.
*This is not investment advice.