Why Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Surged Much in 2025?

Bitcoin usually sees strong gains in the year after a halving. This cycle, however, has looked different. Instead of explosive volatility, the price has remained relatively calm, even behaving like a stable asset at times.

According to Jan3 CEO and Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, this quiet phase is temporary, and a major price move is likely ahead.

Record Liquidations Didn’t Push Bitcoin Down Much

Earlier this year, the market experienced what Mow described as the largest liquidation flush ever. Altcoins fell sharply, but Bitcoin only dropped around $20,000.

“Altcoins dropped to the depths, but Bitcoin was largely unaffected,” he said, highlighting the asset’s growing resilience.

This shows that while the market experienced stress, Bitcoin’s price could absorb selling without a major crash.

Multiple Factors Are Limiting the Rally

Mow pointed out several reasons Bitcoin hasn’t surged yet:

• Profit-taking: Some investors are taking gains rather than buying more.
• Whale rotations: Large holders may be moving Bitcoin around, creating sideways pressure.
• ETF flows: Money moving into ETFs can affect how much buying pressure is reflected in the spot market.
• Exchange or “paper” Bitcoin selling: There may be selling that doesn’t reflect real Bitcoin demand.

“Maybe it’s paper Bitcoin, maybe it’s ETFs, maybe it’s profit-taking it could be many things,” he said.

Altcoins Ran Too Hot

Another factor is the earlier rally in altcoins. Ethereum was reaching new highs, and XRP traded near $3.50, which Mow described as unsustainable. When altcoins correct, Bitcoin often dips briefly but then recovers. This rotation of attention and capital can keep Bitcoin from surging even when demand remains strong.

The Calm May Be Temporary

Mow emphasized that Bitcoin’s limited upside so far does not mean the market is exhausted. Supply constraints and continued demand suggest a price move is inevitable.

“It’s impossible that someone ends up with 10% of the supply at these prices,” he said. “The price has to move sooner or later.”

For now, Bitcoin’s post-halving calm reflects a balance between selling pressure, profit-taking, and capital rotation. But according to this view, the quiet is likely just the calm before the next major move.