Since the start of 2025, Bitcoin has not closed a monthly candle below $80,000. This level has therefore provided critical and solid support so far.
However, signals from the Coinbase Premium Index are threatening this support. Analysts still see reasons for optimism even if the level breaks.
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Hits Its Lowest Level Since February
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase (US) and Binance (international). It often reflects buying demand from US institutional investors.
When the index turns negative, it signals stronger selling pressure from the US. This pressure contributes significantly to BTC price declines.
CryptoQuant data indicates that as of December 30, the index stood at -0.14. This marks the lowest level since February.
The index stayed negative for 16 consecutive days in December. During this period, Bitcoin failed to close a weekly candle above $90,000.
As a result, analysts believe that Bitcoin may not have yet formed a bottom. Selling pressure from US investors shows no clear sign of stopping.
“The biggest indicator of a local bottom will be when the Coinbase premium returns,” investor Johnny said.
A similarly sharp drop in February caused Bitcoin to break the $80,000 support level. The price rebounded quickly afterward.
Therefore, the current deep negative reading may point to a similar scenario.
Additionally, December saw negative ETF flows for the second consecutive month. However, ETF outflows in December declined significantly compared with the previous month.
Patterns from February and early March 2025 show a similar phenomenon. This may reflect continued selling by US investors, but at a weaker pace than before.
This situation creates conditions for Bitcoin to recover. A rebound could occur even if the price temporarily breaks below $80,000.
Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced selling pressure. Their supply has started to increase again.
CryptoQuant data shows that LTH supply shifted from distribution to accumulation in late December. Around 10,700 BTC moved into long-term holding status. This marks the first positive signal from LTHs since they stopped selling in July.
“For now, this remains a very modest change, but it is not insignificant…Historically, such shifts often precede consolidation phases or even bullish recoveries, depending on broader trends.” analyst Darkfost commented.
In summary, the Coinbase Premium Index remains at record lows, and ETF outflows persist. However, signals from long-term holders provide some hope. BTC could break below $80,000 if selling pressure continues. Still, a rebound could emerge at any moment.
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