Though it can hardly be said that Wall Street experts are optimistic about Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock going into 2026, few are as bearish as Gordon Johnson of GJL Research.
Specifically, the analyst – and, arguably, TSLA stock’s biggest bear – issued a new price target for the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s equity on January 7. Despite the new rating actually being an upgrade, it still forecasts a 95% crash from the press time price of $429.97 to $25.28.
Johnson’s previous price target was an even lower $19.05.
Why GJL Research is forecasting a 95% Tesla stock price crash
For years, GJL Research’s argument for a Tesla stock crash has been both straightforward and consistent. Johnson has repeatedly cited the EV maker’s underwhelming delivery growth, and, more importantly, Elon Musk’s track record of breaking promises.
Examining the data, the basic argument surprisingly holds water. Tesla lost its place as the world’s biggest EV company in 2025 to China’s BYD, and its calendar year sales have been disappointing as they came in at 1.63 million.
For comparison, BYD shipped 2.26 million cars within the same timeframe.
It is equally true that Musk has spent a decade promising that breakthroughs like full self-driving are coming within one or two years, and even in 2026, when Tesla’s ‘FSD’ is being extensively tested, the technology itself appears like it is lagging behind competitors like Waymo.
Hammering the point home, Johnson took to X in January to comment that Hyundai will not be sourcing its self-driving technology from Musk’s company, while highlighting that GJL Research has, for years, been describing Tesla’s optics-only approach as a misstep.
Perhaps a better way of viewing GJL Research’s forecasts is as an aggressive statement that the EV maker should be priced as a regular car company, and not a technology and artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse Musk has been presenting it as, rather than a traditional price target.
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