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US jobless claims drop to 198K, beating 215K forecast as labor market holds steady

On January 15, 2026 by voice

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Key Takeaways

  • US initial jobless claims came in at 198K, beating expectations of 215K and marking a drop from the prior week’s revised 207K.
  • Markets climbed on the report, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gaining over 1%, as the labor data reinforced bets on steady Fed policy.

US initial jobless claims dropped to 198K for the week, coming in below the expected 215K and the revised prior reading of 207K, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The weekly claims figure reflects the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Economists say the sustained low level of claims suggests layoffs remain muted, even as hiring has slowed.

Factors including former President Trump’s trade and immigration policies and corporate investment in AI have constrained both labor demand and supply, creating uncertainty in staffing decisions.

Equities opened higher on the data, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 0.5% and the Nasdaq climbing over 1% in early trading. The CME FedWatch Tool still shows a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75% in its late January meeting.

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