Bitcoin recently flushed a key liquidity zone below the $116K mark, triggering a period of sideways consolidation.
With the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, traders are bracing for a potentially significant price move driven by macroeconomic developments.
Technical Analysis
By ShayanMarkets
The Daily Chart
Bitcoin remains within a steep ascending price channel, recently triggering a sweep of significant sell-side liquidity just below the $116K level. This area was loaded with stop-losses and long liquidations, which were flushed as the market dipped.
Despite a short-term rebound following the sweep, bullish momentum has yet to regain full strength, likely due to a spike in supply pressure following a historic whale transaction, where one of the oldest known wallets moved dormant BTC after years of inactivity.
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between the ascending channel’s support at $114K and the ATH resistance around $123K. This range-bound behavior reflects market hesitation ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, which is expected to trigger a major volatility event based on the Fed’s rate policy decision.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the lower timeframe, BTC’s corrective drop was absorbed near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone around $115K, prompting a reversal. Moreover, the price action has broken above a bullish flag formation, signaling a potential continuation toward $123K if momentum sustains. However, this bullish setup is contingent upon upcoming macro developments.
All eyes are now on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with traders awaiting confirmation of a rate cut or hawkish tone. Depending on the Fed’s stance, Bitcoin could either break above its ATH or revisit lower support zones.
On-chain Analysis
By ShayanMarkets
As Bitcoin continues to trade sideways without a decisive breakout, the behavior of large holders is raising eyebrows across the market. On July 25th, a notable spike in Binance Whale Inflows was recorded, with over $1.2 billion in cumulative BTC entering the exchange in a single day. This surge marks the largest 30-day inflow observed in recent months, signaling a major shift in market dynamics.
This wave of inflows led to immediate short-term selling pressure, pushing Bitcoin down from the $120K resistance to the $115K–$116K support zone, where it currently consolidates. While retail inflows have been gradually rising, they pale in comparison to this whale activity, highlighting a significant imbalance in market supply.
If buyers fail to absorb this wave of supply, further downside toward $110K becomes a likely scenario. However, should Bitcoin rebound from current support, a retest of $121K and potentially new all-time highs remain on the table.