The question of who will succeed Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve, whose term expires in May, remains uncertain in the markets.
While US President Donald Trump’s choice for the new Fed Chairman is eagerly awaited, the ratios formed in the forecasting market Polymarket offer important clues about investor expectations.
According to Polymarket data, the strongest contender in the race right now is Kevin Warsh, with a 45% probability. Although Warsh, a former member of the Fed Board of Governors, has lost some of the support compared to previous days, he is still in the lead.
Following Warsh, Rick Rieder comes next with a probability in the 31-32% range. Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, has seen his odds rise recently, indicating a strengthening expectation that a Wall Street-based figure with close ties to financial markets could head the Fed.
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Current Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller is third on the Polymarket list with a 13 percent probability.
Kevin Hassett, known for his close ties to Trump, now appears to have a 6% chance of winning. This drop in Hassett’s support, who once chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisors, comes after Trump expressed his desire for him to remain in his current position.
On the other hand, the probability of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent being re-elected is at 3 percent.
*This is not investment advice.