Bitcoin risks fourth straight monthly loss, a streak not seen since 2018

Bitcoin is on course for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, a rare stretch not seen since 2018 to 2019, when the market recorded six straight red months. There is still one full trading week left in January, but bitcoin is slightly down on the month, hovering around $87,000.

The asset posted negative monthly closes in October, November, and December, marking a sharp correction from its October all time high. From peak to trough, bitcoin has declined roughly 36% over that period.

Notably, even the 2022 bear market, when bitcoin collapsed from $69,000 to $15,000 amid quantitative tightening and crypto specific industry failures, it did not produce more than three consecutive negative months. That historical comparison highlights how unusual the current streak would be if January also closes lower.

Short term optimism

Despite the weakness in spot prices, derivatives markets suggest some tentative optimism. According to Deribit data, options positioning points to modest upside interest into month end.

Bitcoin faces an options expiry on Jan. 30, with total open interest set to expire at roughly $8.5 billion on Deribit. The $100,000 call option holds the highest notional value, close to $900 million, indicating that a meaningful cohort of traders are positioned for a rebound at the six figure level. The max pain price for this expiry sits near $90,000. Max pain refers to the price level at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless, which can create a gravitational pull toward that level as expiration approaches.