BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has emerged as a leading candidate in the race to become the next Federal Reserve chairman, a nominee supported by US President Donald Trump.
Users trading on major forecasting platforms have begun to rate BlackRock’s top executive, Rieder, as having the highest probability of becoming the FED chairman.
According to the latest data from the forecasting markets, Rick Rieder’s probability of winning on Polymarket rose to 47 percent as of Monday morning. Former Fed official Kevin Warsh was second at 28 percent. Rieder’s odds on Polymarket were below 3 percent on January 12.
The volatility in the markets in recent weeks also reflects President Trump’s fluctuating statements regarding his nomination for Fed chairman. While White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett was favored with an 85% probability in December, recent data shows that percentage has dropped to 9%. Polymarket saw approximately $269 million in trading volume for this prediction, while Kalshi saw $59 million.
Rieder’s prominence stems from his unusual position as Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of global fixed income investments at BlackRock. As a potential FED chairman, his publicly available research notes and clear opinions on economic data are closely watched by the markets.
In his assessment of the employment data released on January 9th, Rieder argued that a strong productivity increase had begun in the economy, which was suppressing labor demand. According to Rieder, while headline employment figures appear strong, the actual labor market doesn’t fully reflect this picture. In his note, Rieder stated, “If the question today is whether there is productivity growth in the economy, we can point to many indicators that need closer examination, rather than just looking at the recent slowdown in overall employment growth.”
Rieder also noted that while growth in the US economy remains strong, the broad-based workforce has not been able to participate sufficiently in this dynamism.
*This is not investment advice.