No Whale Buying Signal in Bitcoin: Galaxy Digital Predicts How Much Further the Price Could Fall

As selling pressure deepens in the cryptocurrency market, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, shared a noteworthy assessment regarding the sharp drop in Bitcoin.

According to Thorn, Bitcoin lost 15% of its value between Monday, January 28th and Saturday, January 31st, and the decline accelerated towards the weekend.

On Saturday alone, a 10% pullback occurred, with over $2 billion in long positions liquidated in the futures markets. This move was recorded as one of the largest liquidation events in history. The BTCUSD pair fell as low as $75,644 on Coinbase on Saturday, dropping approximately 10% below the average cost of US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, which is around $84,000.

The price briefly dropped below Strategy’s average Bitcoin cost of $76,037, coming very close to the one-year low of $74,420 seen during the “Tariff Fury” period in April 2025. According to current data, 46% of the Bitcoin supply is at a loss. Furthermore, with the January close, Bitcoin formed a four-month streak of red candles for the first time since 2018.

Thorn pointed out that, excluding 2017, in every period where Bitcoin has pulled back 40% from its all-time high (ATH), the decline has exceeded 50% within three months. A 50% pullback scenario from today’s peak points the $BTC price to around $63,000.

On-chain data indicates a significant supply gap between $82,000 and $70,000. This increases the likelihood that Bitcoin will dip into this range in the short term to test demand. The current price is around $56,000, while the 200-week moving average is at $58,000. Historically, these levels have stood out as strong support zones signaling cycle bottoms.

Thorn notes that at this stage there are no significant accumulation signals from whales or long-term investors. Profit-taking by long-term investors has also slowed considerably recently.

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s inability to join the “debasement hedge” narrative alongside gold and silver also indicates a weakening of the market narrative. The passage of the “CLARITY Act” in the US, which includes regulations for the crypto market structure, could be a short-term catalyst; however, the likelihood of its passage has weakened in recent weeks. According to Thorn, a potential positive regulatory development might benefit altcoins more than Bitcoin.

Thorn stated that Bitcoin could fluctuate around -10% (approximately $76,000), which is its historical maximum discount level relative to the cost of an ETF, and that under current conditions, there is a strong possibility that the price will first test the supply gap at $70,000, then the area between $56,000 and $58,000, and the 200-week moving average.

*This is not investment advice.