Bitcoin’s ($BTC) recent volatility has put the cryptocurrency at risk of an imminent 25% crash, unless it can reclaim a critical price threshold above $80,000, according to one respected blockchain analyst.
Specifically, the very end of January and start of February inaugurated a period of instability for Bitcoin ($BTC), with the world’s premier cryptocurrency making intraday swings almost as large as 10% in a single direction relatively regularly.
Additionally, despite the late February 3 swing being positive and seeing $BTC bounce up from yearly lows close to $73,000 and to its press time price of $75,985, many observers, including the popular blockchain analyst Ali Martinez, believe the worst is yet to come.
Specifically, Martinez explained that the selling pressure affecting the world’s premier cryptocurrency is likely to only increase as, at its press time price, Bitcoin is below the exchange-traded fund (ETF) cost basis of $82,600.
Bitcoin at risk of imminent crash to $57,000
Such a situation, paired with the recent spot $BTC outflows, signals that the latest price rebounds are corrections and not trend-changers, thus indicating a heightened need for caution, according to the X article the expert published on February 4.
Furthermore, historical patterns demonstrate that, once the price of the underlying asset falls below the average ETF purchase price, selling pressure tends to mount with investors seeking to protect what capital remains.
Thus, Ali Martinez warned that, unless spot Bitcoin ETFs see a rapid rise in inflows, $BTC is likely to fall toward its next target price near $57,000.
Bitcoin price targets $50,000 by March
Elsewhere, the on-chain expert’s latest analysis is consistent with an opinion published one day earlier in which Martinez explains that, historically, a Bitcoin fall below the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) tends to lead to a drop to the 200-week SMA within about 30 days.
In the context of the February 2026 market, the 100-week SMA stands at $87,500 – more than $10,000 above the press time levels, and $5,000 higher than the ETF cost basis – and the 200-week figure is at $57,600.
Under the circumstances, Ali Martinez predicted Bitcoin is likely to crash to $50,000 by March or April at the latest, before continuing its drop to a probable cycle low near $38,000 in October.
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