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It’s the final day of July, so I figured, why not look back at this month and recap what happened from a market point of view?
I wouldn’t blame you for forgetting some of the big events that happened just this month, such as bitcoin topping a fresh all-time high (though it’s backed down slightly since), the passage of the GENIUS act, and ETH being up 56% in the past month.
Speaking of ETH, Kraken’s OTC desk noted: “ETH has broken decisively above the long-standing pivot at $2,813, a level that had capped price for over a year. This breakout marks a significant structural shift and clears the path towards the next major resistance zone near $4,000, which now comes into view as the next upside target.”
In the short term, however, we may be in for a somewhat volatile start to August, given Trump’s tariff deadline and other macroeconomic factors. Though even bearing that in mind, Kraken’s OTC report suggests that the momentum has already softened for bitcoin.
The good news: bitcoin managed to bounce back from an initial dip after Galaxy unloaded 80,000 BTC for a client.
“One core explanation behind the resilience lies in the continuous strong accumulation from BTC treasury vehicles and ETPs throughout July,” K33 noted. That helped to offset the “sale order effect in the broad market. This resilience has reignited risk appetite, with perpetual futures open interest climbing toward Q4 2024 highs, though funding rates have remained neutral.”
I don’t think anyone will be surprised by the next stat that K33 pointed out: While July tends to be a more chill month, this July bucked the trend.
“Average daily trading volumes over the past week come in at $4bn. This reflects a 12% decline from last week’s level but remains well above May to June levels,” K33 said.
Like I noted above, the first week of August may not be very smooth, but the volatility may not be here to stay.
Looking at CME data, K33 analysts said that the “August premium over July futures initially reflected confidence, but compressed post-expiry to levels not seen since May, signaling cautious medium-term positioning during a seasonally quieter period.”
At least we’re at the tail end of the dog days of summer.