Coinbase Reveals Two Levels That Will Determine Bitcoin’s Fate, Shares Four Scenarios

David Duong, from Coinbase’s investment research team, shared his analysis for Bitcoin ($BTC), highlighting two critical levels in the short term: According to Duong, the strongest base is $60,000, and the first major ceiling is $82,000.

The analysis stated that gamma exposure, which acts like a “hidden liquidity provider” in the options market, can either calm or accelerate price movements.

Duong stated that, within this context, when investors choose between range trading (buying at support and selling at resistance) and breakout trading (catching the new trend after a breakout), monitoring gamma dynamics in the options market can be crucial.

The analysis describes “gamma” as one of the key risk indicators for options, measuring how quickly the price sensitivity (delta) of an option changes as the $BTC price moves.

According to the chart shared by Duong as the “current map,” negative gamma is prevalent in the $60,000-$70,000 range, therefore there is a risk of a sharp downward break. Conversely, positive gamma is more dominant in the $85,000-$90,000 range; this may indicate a tendency for the upward movement to “climb more slowly” and linger in those regions for longer.

Duong’s note highlighted four core scenarios centered around two main levels, and an example positioning approach for each:

What if $BTC reaches $82,000 and is rejected?

With the perception that sellers maintain control, it is noted that “breakthrough seekers” may face difficulties in this area.

If $BTC rises above $82,000 and remains there:

In a scenario where the bulls take control, it is suggested that the price might fluctuate in the 85-90 thousand range, and therefore, instead of unlimited positions, limited structures (e.g., call spread) could mitigate the time decay (theta) effect.

What if $BTC drops to $60,000, shakes up the market, and then recovers quickly?

According to the analyst, in this scenario, described as a “trap-then-rip,” instead of trying to catch the bottom, a long position approach is preferred after a confirmation/retracement signal. In a volatile environment, structures like call spreads are highlighted in terms of risk-return.

If $BTC loses $60,000 and the decline continues:

Warnings are being issued that the combination of negative gamma and “ground break” could accelerate the decline faster than expected.

In the summary of the note, Duong framed a break below $60,000 as a deep decline, while $82,000 was seen as “the gateway to the next upward leg.” Therefore, he argued that as the price approached these two levels throughout the week, the gamma balance in the options market (especially the negative gamma concentration in the $60,000–$70,000 range) should be monitored as a factor that could increase volatility.

*This is not investment advice.