Considering that Bitcoin ($BTC) is, with its February 20 press time price of $67,307, trading at half the value it was in early October 2025, and has generally been on a downtrend, the battle between cryptocurrency bulls and bears has been surprisingly intense.
In this clash, crypto traders on the prediction platform Polymarket appear to be more on the pessimistic side.
Specifically, while there is a trade with a volume of $2.3 million that is titled ‘Bitcoin all time high by ___?,’ with all the possible dates falling within 2026, the likelihood of it being resolved ‘yes’ with an actually new all-time high ($ATH) is rather low.
Here’s when the next Bitcoin all-time high might come
Only four possible dates for $BTC price hitting a new $ATH are listed: by March 31, June 30, September 30, and December 31. Furthermore, the one with the highest likelihood is not only the farthest, but is itself at a rather low 21%.
With the spread showing 15% on September 30, 7% on June 30, and 2% on March 31, it would appear that the cryptocurrency prediction market is factoring in less than a 50% chance of Bitcoin really climbing to new highs this year.
Why the Bitcoin all-time high prediction market is odd
Elsewhere, there are several interesting caveats to the predictive trade. To begin with, the market is concerned solely with $BTC’s fluctuations on the cryptocurrency exchange Binance:
“This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1 minute candle for $BTC/USDT between 16 December ’25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle’s “High” price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.”
The situation is made even more quaint by the fact that, at press time on February 20, 2026, the resolution date ‘specified in the title’ is listed as April 1, 2026.
Bitcoin bear case in 2026
The rather high degree of certainty that there will be no new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2026 is backed by the prevailing attitude among many investors and analysts. Indeed, as many observers noted, $BTC appears to be in the now-traditional downward section of its typical cycle.
Ali Martinez, a popular blockchain analyst on X, previously estimated Bitcoin is almost certain to fall toward $50,000 – possibly even $38,000 – and might hit its next low in October.
The legendary ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry similarly highlighted an apparent resonance between the early 2026 chart patterns and those evident in the 2021 and 2022 cryptocurrency markets that led to the previous ‘crypto winter.’
Bitcoin 2026 bull case
Still, some of the ‘yes’ bets can find an anchor in multiple institutional forecasts. Earlier this year, Bernstein issued an exceptionally bullish opinion that Bitcoin is headed to a new $ATH of $150,000 this year and that the bear case is exceptionally weak.
The British banking giant Standard Chartered, for its part, took on a chimera approach. It has been bearish in that it lowered its previous $8 $XRP price target and $150,000 $BTC forecast, but bullish since it still forecasts a rally for both digital assets.
Specifically, it now predicts Bitcoin will rebound to $100,000 and $XRP to $2.80.
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