Bitcoin vs. Gold: Long-Term Chart Signals Possible Bottom After 14-Month Relative Bear Market

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe set the market talking this week after posting what he called “the best chart in the ecosystem,” a long-term look at Bitcoin’s valuation against gold that, he says, flips the usual bullish story on its head. Van de Poppe argues the $BTC/Gold ratio is at its lowest level ever and that, measured in gold, Bitcoin actually peaked in December 2024, meaning the digital asset has been in a relative bear market for roughly 14 months.

That view matters because most investors still frame Bitcoin’s cycle in U.S. dollar terms. On the dollar front, Bitcoin remains far above pre-2024 levels and was trading around $68,000 at the time of writing, a far cry from the panic lows of previous bear markets. But van de Poppe’s point is that comparing $BTC to another hard asset, gold, reveals a different rhythm. When gold surges, Bitcoin’s dollar price can be pulled up even as Bitcoin loses ground measured in ounces of gold.

Gold itself is no afterthought. The metal has enjoyed a powerful run into 2026, trading above $5,000 an ounce in recent days, a move driven by geopolitics, central-bank buying and debate over global fiscal health, all forces that strengthen demand for safe havens. That strength in gold, van de Poppe says, may have masked Bitcoin’s underlying weakness in “real” terms.

The technical argument is stark. Van de Poppe highlights that the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) of $BTC priced in gold has hit the same historic lows that marked the end of the three prior $BTC/Gold bear cycles, each of which lasted about 14 months. If history repeats, those readings have preceded multiyear uptrends in Bitcoin’s performance versus gold. Traders and experts have echoed the observation, noting the rarity of the signal and its appearance at past capitulation points.

There are Two Practical Takeaways

For bullish contrarians, this is the kind of “buy the fear” moment the best traders circle on their calendars. Historically, extreme $BTC/Gold lows have been followed by long rallies. For others, it’s a cautionary tale about measurement. Dollar denominated all-time highs do not always mean the same thing in cross-asset terms. As van de Poppe put it, the October 2025 dollar peak may have been more a product of metals’ strength than pure Bitcoin conviction.

Financial markets are, of course, never obliged to follow past patterns or historical charts. Gold prices can roll over in the future, macro conditions can change, and correlation regimes can shift anytime. Still, with the Bitcoin price trading near $68k and gold still elevated, the $BTC/Gold chart has injected a fresh line of debate into what many assumed was a short, shallow pullback in the market.

Whether this current scenario is the final chapter of a relative bear market or a longer pause before the next leg up for $BTC will play out in the weeks or months ahead. However, for now, the $BTC/Gold ratio chart has forced experts and investors to ask a simple question: are we reading Bitcoin the way the market wants us to, or the way history suggests we should?