Some investors expect Bitcoin to break out of its consolidation phase and reach new record highs in the second half of the year.
Behind this optimistic expectation are the acceleration of corporate treasury purchases, strong cash inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and cryptocurrency legislation advancing in the US Congress.
Bitcoin rose nearly 30% in the second quarter, but the period has been labeled “consolidation.” Bitcoin’s gains have diminished month-on-month after trading in a narrow price range for three months. The cryptocurrency gained 15% in the first half of the year, a more subdued performance compared to the 45% rise in the same period last year. But analysts say the real rise may be starting now.
Bitcoin, which had largely traded above $100,000 since May 9, was trading at $108,000 today, about 3% below the record of $111,999 reached in May.
“We are still seeing an acceleration in ETF adoption. Institutional treasuries are just starting to develop Bitcoin strategies, and we expect more money to flow through these channels,” said Devin Ryan, head of financial technology research at Citizens Bank. According to Ryan, there is increasing individual and institutional interest in Bitcoin, and this trend points to strong upside potential.
Another element that plays a significant role in this rise is “Bitcoin treasury companies.” Firms like Nakamoto, Twenty One and Strive Asset Management are raising capital to buy Bitcoin through stock issuances by merging with public companies. “There are mergers that are pending SEC approval. So there is a lot more money waiting to buy Bitcoin that hasn’t bought yet,” said Steven Lubka, Vice President of Investor Relations at Nakamoto.
Lubka says that not only institutional demand, but also new fiscal stimulus expected from Washington and record-breaking stock markets will contribute to Bitcoin’s rise. “On the one hand, Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset class, and on the other hand, a large amount of capital is flowing into this area with the financialization process,” Lubka says, arguing that the current administration’s positive attitude towards Bitcoin will also be a major catalyst.
According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, regulatory developments in the US could also support Bitcoin for the rest of the year. Markets could price in expectations of an earlier rate cut if President Donald Trump appoints a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Additionally, the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill expected to pass Congress, could boost interest in Bitcoin, especially among individual investors.
Kendrick noted that some investors may be concerned about Bitcoin’s four-year cycle toward the end of September. Noting that previous cycles have seen prices fall about 18 months after each halving, Kendrick said institutional inflows could offset those effects this time around.
Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and $200,000 by the end of the year, according to Standard Chartered’s estimate. “Once the market gets over these cyclical fears, we expect Bitcoin to continue its rise,” Kendrick said.
*This is not investment advice.