Bitcoin remains stable around $118,000 ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced today.
Markets are widely expected to hold interest rates steady at this meeting, with the focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due tomorrow.
While the CME FedWatch tool shows a very high probability of no change in interest rates, “no change” contracts on the Polymarket were traded at over 90% before the meeting.
“Markets are bracing for a double whammy this week: a Fed decision that is expected to remain largely steady, and a critical PCE data release that could potentially open the door to rate cuts later in the year,” said Matt Mena, Research Strategist at 21Shares. He noted that the number of open jobs at 7.43 million and the jobless ratio around 1.06 suggest balance in the labor market.
According to Mena, a strong cryptocurrency policy framework from the White House, coupled with softer PCE data, could allow Bitcoin to retest $120,000 and enter a phase of “price discovery.” A White House working group, including various federal agencies, presented a vision for a “golden age” for crypto, but the document made no mention of establishing a Bitcoin reserve.
Nansen Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard stated that the options market is showing an optimistic trend, but that a cautious approach is also being maintained. Sondergaard noted that block buys and spreads are concentrated in Bitcoin options trading between $118,000 and $120,000. “These positions indicate upward expectations, but at the same time, risks are being carefully managed,” he said.
*This is not investment advice.