Bitcoin price outlook after US CPI data release today

Bitcoin fell over 2% on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the release of U.S. CPI data later today.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from an intraday high of $71,612 on Tuesday to $69,936 last check on Wednesday, March 11.

Bitcoin price movement has fallen as traders braced for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to publish the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists expect the monthly CPI to rise by 0.3% in February, up from 0.2% increase seen in January, with the year-over-year reading holding steady at 2.4%. Meanwhile, Core CPI figures are estimated to come in at 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.5% YoY.

What to expect for Bitcoin after the CPI release?

While inflation data has often been very pivotal for Federal Reserve officials on determining the next policy step, Bitcoin’s initial reaction following the announcement would most likely remain muted as the February CPI print would not factor in the impact of crude oil prices on inflation.

In the wake of an aggressive attack by Iran on commercial vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital strategic waterbody, global energy supplies were severely disrupted, causing crude oil prices to surge past the $100 mark for the first time in years as the market reacted to the sudden threat to one of the world’s most critical transit chokepoints.

Without the inclusion of the surging oil prices in inflation that can be expected following next month’s CPI, Bitcoin price could continue to trade relatively sideways with no clear direction following the data release today.

If the CPI print instead comes out hotter than expected, it could trigger hawkish sentiment, while a cooler reading could encourage bulls to take control.

At press time, markets virtually see zero chance of a rate cut in March and minimal 25 bps reduction expectations in April, per the CME FedWatch tool.

Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, have typically rallied when the odds of Fed rate cuts are high and retreated when they diminish.

For now, $71,000-$72,000 appears to stand as the next major resistance area for Bitcoin, which bulls have struggled to penetrate. On the other hand, a drop below the $66,000-$67,000 support zone could open the door for a deeper correction.