Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds EMA Cluster as Analysts Push Back On McGlone’s $10,000 Call

Bitcoin price today trades near $69,598, holding the 20-day EMA at $69,510 as buyers defend the ascending trendline from the March 9 lows near $65,800. On the surface it looks like a quiet session. Under the hood, the 4-hour chart is sitting at a genuine decision point with Fibonacci resistance stacking directly overhead and a descending channel still compressing price from above.

4-Hour Chart: Fibonacci Levels Define The Battlefield

$BTC 4-Hour Price Action (Source: TradingView)

The descending channel from the March 4 high near $74,000 remains the dominant structure. Price has worked through the EXT 0.618 Fibonacci and is now pressing against R4 at $70,837 and PF1 1R at $71,666, the two levels that have capped every recovery attempt this week. Above those sits R5 at $74,918, which aligns with the top of the failed breakout from early March.

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Below, S3 at $63,136 and S4 at $61,103 define the channel downside if sellers reassert control. The channel lower boundary is falling toward $62,000 through mid-March, narrowing the window for bulls to act.

Key levels:

• EMA cluster support: $68,767 to $69,510
• R4 resistance: $70,837
• PF1 1R resistance: $71,666
• R5 target: $74,918
• S3 support: $63,136
• S4 support: $61,103

30-Minute Chart: MACD Closes In On Bullish Cross

$BTC 30-Minute Price Action (Source: TradingView)

The ascending trendline from March 9 lows is holding on the 30-minute chart, with price bouncing off it near $69,000 this morning. The $71,000 to $72,000 supply zone has rejected price twice and is the short-term ceiling to watch. RSI sits at 44.38 with the signal line at 38.23, diverging higher after the recent low.

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The MACD at 1.54 is the most interesting data point on this timeframe. The histogram is narrowing fast toward a bullish cross, and if that cross materialises in the next few candles it would be the first genuine short-term momentum confirmation since the March 10 rally faded.

Key 30-minute levels:

• Ascending trendline support: ~$68,800 rising
• Supply zone resistance: $71,000 to $72,000

Analysts Reject McGlone’s $10,000 Call

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone is sticking to his call that Bitcoin could fall below $10,000, arguing the market remains trapped in a macro-driven unwind tied to deflationary pressures and excess speculative supply. He told EllioTrades the bear market may not be over and that a durable bottom cannot form until speculative excess is fully purged.

The pushback was swift. Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics said reaching $10,000 would require a global liquidity crisis, a nuclear war, and the internet to stop working. Jason Fernandes of AdLunam placed a more realistic downside scenario around $28,000, contingent on a meaningful contraction in global liquidity. PrimeXBT’s Jonatan Randin called the $10,000 target highly improbable while acknowledging further downside is possible, placing the next real accumulation zone between $30,000 and $40,000 and expecting the near-term range to hold between $60,000 and $70,000.

Greenspan made the most structurally grounded case, pointing out that Bitcoin already cleared its major bear market in 2022 and that a 50% retracement from the all-time high is historically normal. He stopped short of declaring a bottom but said it is quite possible the lows are already in.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

• Bullish case: $BTC holds the EMA cluster above $68,767, breaks R4 at $70,837 and PF1 1R at $71,666 with volume, and clears the $71,000 to $72,000 supply zone. A MACD cross on the 30-minute chart is the early signal to watch, with R5 at $74,918 as the next meaningful target.
• Bearish case: Rejection at the EMA cluster drops price back below the ascending trendline toward S3 at $63,136. A break there opens the descending channel lower boundary near $62,220 and S4 at $61,103.

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