Fidelity: $60K to Act as Floor for Bitcoin (BTC)

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, has doubled down on his prediction that Bitcoin has found its cyclical bottom.

Timmer recently took to the X social media network to reassure market participants that the $60,000 level remains a formidable line of defense for the digital asset.

“Bitcoin has continued to search for a bottom, and I still think that the $60k is a good place to look,” Timmer shared alongside his latest chart. “We may well undercut it at some point, but based on the power law support line and the gold/Bitcoin ratio, I believe that level should act as a floor.”

Bitcoin’s power law

To justify the $60,000 floor, Timmer relies heavily on a long-term “Bitcoin’s Power Law” chart.

The model uses a logarithmic scale to chart Bitcoin’s price evolution from 2009 through projected data into 2029. It tracks the cryptocurrency’s natural growth curve through expanding macroeconomic cycles.

The chart maps three primary trajectories: a green resistance line representing historical bull market peaks, a dotted blue trendline representing fair value, and an orange support line representing absolute cyclical bottoms.

Following the most recent cycle peak of $122,765, the market has corrected sharply downwards. However, according to Timmer’s power law model, the current cyclical support band lies between $52,792 and $66,942. Right in the middle of that band sits the $60,000 mark.

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The lower half of the cracks two distinct oscillators: the percentage deviation of Bitcoin’s price from its power law trendline (pink bars) and the 52-week Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (blue bars).

Currently, the pink bars indicate that Bitcoin is sitting at a negative 45% deviation from its fair value trendline. Furthermore, the blue Z-score bars have plunged to negative 100%. Based on the cryptocurrency’s price performance, a bear market cycle comes to an end when two oscillators reach extreme depths.

A “shallow” crypto winter

In mid-February 2026, when Bitcoin initially crashed down to the $60,000 zone, Timmer confidently declared that the 4-year bull market cycle had ended, but that the subsequent crypto winter would be surprisingly “shallow.”

During previos cycles, the asset would suffer catastrophic 80% drawdowns. However, the current floor is significantly higher due to heavy institutionalization that was possible due to the launch of spot ETFs.