A traditional markets analyst, Aksel Kibar, published a rare warning for Bitcoin investors, and according to his technical analysis the current price recovery is not the beginning of a new bull run, but only a technical trap within a global downtrend.
Thus, he emphasizes that in fact the long-term market structure has changed, and after Bitcoin failed to hold above the key highs of last year around $127,000 per $BTC, the chart formed a large broadening pattern, followed by a sharp collapse.
$60,000 could be next stop, says Kibar
Now the price of Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average, which is a classic sign of a bear market, and any short-term upward movements in such a situation Kibar considers only temporary consolidations before further decline.
The main reason for concern today, in his opinion, is the formation of a “rising wedge” pattern. This means that the $BTC price is moving upward in a narrowing corridor, but each new local high barely exceeds the previous one. Such a structure is usually counter-trend and signals exhaustion of buyers.
Exactly at the level of $69,200, where Bitcoin is now, it is testing the lower boundary of this wedge. According to the analyst, the market has not yet found the final level for bottom fishing.
If the wedge is broken downward, which is now happening in real time, the next targets will be $60,000, the nearest psychological support that was tested in early February, and a deeper zone at $52,000-$48,000, where the current phase of correction may end.
The analyst calls for caution and advises not to take local growth as a change of the global trend. While the price remains significantly below $90,000 per $BTC, the dominant trend remains downward.