CryptoQuant Analysts Believe Bitcoin Hasn’t Yet Reached a Definitive Bottom! Here Are the Details

While the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market continues, CryptoQuant senior analyst Julio Moreno suggests that a definitive bottom for Bitcoin has not yet been reached. According to Moreno, although the market is approaching the “final stress phase,” the necessary conditions for a bottom to form have not yet been fully met.

The analysis specifically highlighted the Net Recognized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures the profit and loss of long-term investors. Moreno noted that this indicator is approaching a critical turning point but has not yet signaled the final bottom. He recalled that in past market cycles, true bottoms occurred when the NUPL value of long-term investors turned negative.

Current data reveals a significant decline in the profitability of long-term investors. According to Moreno, the profitability of this group of investors has fallen from 58 percent to 3 percent since its peak in October last year. However, the fact that the NUPL indicator remains above zero suggests that the market has not yet fully reached the “surrender” stage.

The analyst noted that in the past, such confidence tests could last between 6 and 277 days, emphasizing that the current process could also take time. According to Moreno, a true bottom occurs not only during periods of pressure, but also when investors’ accumulated profits are completely wiped out and turned into losses.

In this context, it is considered that the expectation of an early bottom in Bitcoin is limited as long as NUPL does not move into negative territory.

*This is not investment advice.