The recent Bitcoin pullback may be part of a historical trend that has always played out during midterm years.
While most Bitcoin investors have blamed the latest Bitcoin drop on President Trump’s recent speech concerning the Iran conflict, Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin may simply be following a pattern that has appeared many times during U.S. midterm election years.
Key Points
- After rising to $69,268 on April 1, Bitcoin has collapsed as April progresses.
- Many investors blame the drop on Trump’s April 1, 2026, speech, where he warned of stronger action against Iran.
- Benjamin Cowen believes Trump’s speech may not be solely behind the drop, citing a historical pattern that follows midterm years.
- Cowen stated that Bitcoin typically records a February low, March lower high, and April pullback during midterm years.
Bitcoin Crashing into April
Notably, Bitcoin has shown volatility in recent days. After rising to $69,268 between late March and April 1, the asset quickly reversed and fell to $65,696 today, April 2. Although it has recovered slightly, the price still nurses a 2.05% drop on the day, trading at $66,704.
Most traders have blamed this decline on President Donald Trump’s primetime national address on April 1, 2026 (evening U.S. time). During the speech, he took a tougher position on Iran than markets had expected.
Investors had hoped for signs of easing tensions or a quick resolution, and some had already priced that expectation into the market.
However, Trump spoke about possible escalation, including plans to act strongly within 2–3 weeks and threats to target power plants and energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened or secured. This change in tone unsettled the market and likely added pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Following Midterm Years Pattern
However, Cowen believes it is too simple to say the speech alone caused the drop. According to him, Bitcoin often follows a specific pattern in midterm years. He stressed that the price usually forms a low in February, rises to a lower high in March, and then falls again in April.
To him, many investors try to explain price changes with current events, but these explanations often come after the move has already happened. He also warned against letting emotions guide decisions, noting that market narratives can be persuasive, but they do not always reflect the bigger picture.
Interestingly, Cowen shared this theory over a month ago. Specifically, while Bitcoin recovered toward $70,000 on Feb. 25, Cowen stressed that the crypto asset often rallies into March, suggesting that March could see some upward push to lower highs. However, he predicted a drop into April.
Historical Evidence from 2022, 2018, and 2014
Historical data confirms this theory. Specifically, in 2022, the last midterm year, Bitcoin dropped to $34,324 in February before recovering to $48,234 on March 28. Despite the rise, March only produced a lower high compared to earlier peaks. The price then fell again into April, reaching $39,218 by April 11.
A similar trend appeared in 2018. Notably, Bitcoin fell to $5,921 on Feb. 6, then climbed to $11,688 on March 5, again forming a lower high. As March ended, the price started to drop, reaching $6,510 by April 6, 2018.
The same pattern showed up in 2014, as Bitcoin touched a low of $400 on Feb. 25 and later rose to $710 on March 3, which also marked a lower high. As March continued, the market weakened, and the decline extended into April, with the price falling to $358 by April 10, 2014.
Bitcoin Following Similar Pattern
This year appears to follow the same path. Bitcoin fell to $60,000 on February 6, 2026, then climbed to a lower high of $76,000 on March 17. Now, as April begins, the price seems to be entering another correction phase.
However, it remains uncertain how the rest of April will play out, as past results have not always been the same. In April 2022, Bitcoin dropped by 17.31%, but in April 2018, it ended up gaining 33% after a weak start. In April 2014, the decline was smaller at 1.31%.
These mixed outcomes show that while the pattern often appears, the final result can be different. Bitcoin is following the expected trend so far, but whether it continues to fall or turns upward later in the month remains unclear.
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