Trump’s warning of US strikes on Iran in the next 2–3 weeks has dropped the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
The April 7 ceasefire market is most affected, with only 5 days until resolution. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, down from 20%, while the April 30 market rose slightly to 38% YES, up from 36%. Odds for a ceasefire by June 30 are at 62% YES. The biggest change is between April 15 and April 30, suggesting traders expect significant developments then.
Ceasefire markets see $1.37M/day in USDC volume, with $15K needed to shift April 7 odds by 5 points. The largest move was a 2-point drop in the April 7 market at 8:13 AM, reacting to Trump’s statement. The thin order book means moderate trades can shift odds noticeably.
Trump’s comments signal potential escalation. Traders are pricing in military actions over diplomatic solutions. A YES share at 8¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs by April 7—a 12.5x return. However, given the current climate and Trump’s stance, this is unlikely without a diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM, movements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, and any rhetoric shifts from Trump or Iranian officials. These could change market trajectories.