Binance Releases Surprise Bitcoin Report: “BTC’s Net Inflation Rate Has Turned Negative”

According to a new report published by Binance Research, the global cryptocurrency market experienced limited growth in March 2026, despite the uncertainties created by US-Iran tensions.

While the total market capitalization increased by 1.8%, Bitcoin and Ethereum in particular showed stronger performance compared to traditional assets.

According to the report, in the 32 days since the start of the Iranian conflict, Bitcoin rose by approximately 1%, while Ethereum increased by 6%. During the same period, the S&P 500 lost 8% of its value, the SOXX semiconductor index fell by 12%, and the EEM emerging markets index dropped by 13%. The declines of 13% and 22% in gold and silver, respectively, demonstrate that crypto assets have emerged as an “alternative store of value in a geopolitically stressful environment.”

Binance Research stated that the crypto market initially experienced a risk-aversion wave, but exhibited a rapid recovery thanks to its 24/7 liquidity structure and institutional demand. In particular, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs for four consecutive weeks reversed the previous outflow trend. In March, there was a net inflow of approximately $1.2 billion into spot ETFs.

The report also highlighted Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. While approximately 164,000 $BTC are produced annually, the fact that around 290,000 $BTC remain inactive in the long term results in a net inflation rate of -0.21%. This indicates that the circulating supply in the market is shrinking over time.

On the institutional side, Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buying strategy stood out. It was noted that the company raised $1.56 billion in funding through its preferred stock vehicle, STRC, in March alone, and this funding financed approximately 50% of its Bitcoin purchases during the month. STRC trading volume reached a record high with a 95% monthly increase, and DeFi products based on this asset have also begun to emerge.

On the other hand, a notable shift has been observed in the behavior of long-term Bitcoin investors (LTH). Historically, the supply of this investor group decreased during market peaks, but despite a pullback of approximately 46% from the October 2025 peak, their supply has increased again since mid-February. This suggests the market may have entered a new accumulation cycle.

The report also covered developments in AI and blockchain integration. The ERC-8004 identity standard developed for AI agents has seen rapid growth since its launch in January, reaching over 162,000 registered agents. BNB Chain holds the highest share at 33.5%, followed by Base (23.5%) and Ethereum (19.5%). However, Binance Research stated that this area is still in its early stages and that real economic use will determine the future of the sector.

The outlook for April is said to be determined by the course of geopolitical tensions, global trade conditions, and liquidity dynamics. According to the report, current data indicates a “rebalancing” process in the crypto market, which could lay the groundwork for a new bull cycle.

*This is not investment advice.