As expected, U.S. inflation accelerated last month, driven mostly by rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Core prices, though, surprised to the downside.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% in March, according to a Friday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had forecast a 0.9% rise, and February’s increase was 0.3%.
On a year-over-year basis, CPI was higher by 3.3% against expectations of 3.3% and February’s 2.4%.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was more subdued, rising 0.2% in March versus forecasts of 0.3% and February’s 0.2%. Year-over-year core CPI rose 2.6% versus forecasts of 2.7% and February’s 2.5%.
Trading in a tight range around the $72,000 level in the hours ahead of the news, the price of bitcoin rose to $72,400 in the moments following the report.
Amid the war in Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices, markets over the past weeks have shifted from pricing in a series of Fed rate cuts this year to pricing in one or more rate hikes, and now expect no change in U.S. central bank monetary policy.
Ahead of this morning’s data, there was about a 99% chance the Fed would stay on hold at its late-April meeting and a 97% chance of the same at the mid-June meeting, according to CME FedWatch.