ECB chief economist Philip Lane warned the central bank could still raise interest rates if inflation’s impact lasts longer than expected, keeping tightening risks alive even after March’s pause.
European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane has warned that interest rates may yet rise if inflation in the euro area proves more persistent than policymakers currently expect, keeping the door open to further tightening even after the ECB held borrowing costs steady in March.
According to Jinshi’s summary of Lane’s latest remarks, the Governing Council member said that “if the impact of inflation lasts for a longer period, the European Central Bank will consider raising interest rates,” underlining that the fight against above‑target price growth is not over.
His comments echo recent guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who told the Financial Times that “if we expect inflation to deviate significantly and persistently from target, the response must be appropriately forceful or persistent,” signalling that rate hikes remain on the table if price pressures re‑accelerate.
Inflation risks and rate path in focus
In its March policy decision, the ECB left its three key interest rates unchanged and reiterated that it is “determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term,” while acknowledging that the conflict in the Middle East has created upside risks for inflation via higher energy costs.
The central bank’s latest projections see headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026 and hovering around 2% in 2027 and 2028, but officials including Lane have flagged that wage dynamics and firms’ price‑setting plans will be watched closely at “every meeting” to judge whether those forecasts remain credible.
Lagarde has also stressed that “self‑reinforcing mechanisms” could take hold if inflation expectations drift away from the target, warning that the risk of de‑anchoring would “become acute” without a sufficiently firm response, a stance that has kept markets wary of declaring the hiking cycle definitively over.
Traders in money markets currently price in two to three ECB rate increases by year‑end, which would lift the main policy rate toward a range of roughly 2.50% to 2.75%, with the timing seen as highly sensitive to incoming inflation prints and developments in energy markets.
For crypto investors, Lane’s signal that rates could still rise if inflation lingers adds another macro variable to watch alongside the European inflation data and central bank communications that crypto.news has tracked in previous coverage of ECB decisions and their spillover into Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.