Bitcoin’s Biggest Test Is Clear: It Came So Close During the Last Rally – “The Real Breakout…”

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, in his new analysis evaluating Bitcoin’s recent rise, stated that the market is at a critical juncture. Cowen noted that Bitcoin has climbed to the “bear market resistance band” (21-week EMA) levels, emphasizing that this region will be decisive for the market’s direction.

Bitcoin’s price pulled back from $78,361, coming very close to the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently around $78,415. Cowen noted that the initial reaction from this level doesn’t yet signify a definitive “rejection,” recalling that in the past (particularly in 2023 and 2024), a real breakout could come several weeks after a wick was placed above this band.

In his analysis, Cowen drew attention to historical cycles, particularly highlighting parallels with Bitcoin’s performance during US midterm election years. He noted a pattern similar to 2018, where Bitcoin bottomed out in April but maintained that level above February’s, suggesting that this could indicate short-term strength lasting until the end of April.

He stated that the FED meeting and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decisions could trigger this “strong stance” narrative in the market.

If Bitcoin manages to break through the bear market resistance band, the next and biggest obstacle, according to Cowen, will be the 200-day moving average. The analyst noted that in past bear markets (2014, 2018, and 2022), this level acted as an insurmountable wall, and that sustained trading above this line is necessary for the current rally to transform into a lasting bull market.

Despite the short-term rallies, Cowen maintains his macro perspective. He argues that the current rise could be a “counter-trend rally” and that Bitcoin is highly likely to fall to lower levels later in the year.

The analyst believes we are in a phase where cryptocurrencies continue to lose value against other markets such as stocks, gold, and the energy sector.

*This is not investment advice.