The U.S. bid that drove April’s rally is fading.
Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium, the difference between the price on Coinbase (COIN) — which caters mainly to U.S. customers — and on offshore exchanges, flipped negative this week for the first time since early April, CryptoQuant data show.
The metric ran consistently positive from April 8 through April 22, the same window that took bitcoin from $66,000 to a local high near $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has rolled over since.
Coinbase is widely used as a proxy for U.S. institutional and dollar-denominated flows, so a persistent negative reading means American investors are consistently paying less than the rest of the world. They’re either selling more aggressively or simply not showing up.
Onchain data tells the same story from the other side.
Bitcoin Realized Loss 7-day Sum, which tracks the total dollar value of coins moved at a loss across the network, spiked to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000.
Realized Loss is recognized only when holders sell coins below the price at which they originally bought them.
A print near $6 billion at $78,000 means the sellers were buyers at higher prices. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a report the cohort likely entered between $80,000 and $95,000 during late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit rather than a reentry point.
The two datasets are indicative of U.S. institutional buyers slowing their bid through Coinbase right as the holders increased selling activity. Bitcoin was recently trading around $76,000.
What traders watch from here is whether the Realized Loss metric continues to fall as the underwater supply works through. The reading has already declined from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggesting the seller cohort is thinning.
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