Bitcoin ($BTC) is up roughly 13% in April, and online prediction markets suggest that traders are counting on relatively stable prices as we head into May.
Specifically, as of the time of writing, Kalshi pricing suggests a 64% probability that the flagship crypto will hold above $76,000 by 5 p.m. (EDT) tomorrow.
Contracts tied to $BTC climbing past $76,500 show a 47% implied probability, while the likelihood of the asset reclaiming $77,000 sits at 37%, suggesting traders see limited upside over the next 24 hours.
With a broader market pullback of 1% and a relatively modest 18% correlation to the S&P 500, the fact that most traders don’t see Bitcoin gaining much ground tomorrow reflects a broader macro-led shift toward risk aversion.
The Federal Reserve has also decided to hold rates steady while signaling a “higher-for-longer” trajectory. Combined with rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, the stance has weighed on speculative assets such as crypto.
Further pressure came from a wave of leveraged liquidations, with more than $110 million in Bitcoin positions wiped out, accelerating the downside momentum.
Bitcoin price action
From a near-term perspective, Bitcoin is hovering above key technical support at $76,200, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Holding this level could indeed lead to consolidation in the $76,240–$79,000 range, but since a breakdown could risk a sharper move toward $73,500, particularly if elevated oil prices persist, the market’s subdued optimism appears justified.
Looking ahead, attention will thus center on both macro and technical signals. Notably, easing of tensions in the Middle East, or a shift in Fed messaging, could help stabilize sentiment. Likewise, renewed Bitcoin ETF flows could provide further support.
Overall, the short-term outlook leans neutral. Bitcoin’s trajectory now hinges on whether it can defend immediate support amid ongoing macro volatility.
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