Over the past three weeks, bitcoin (BTC) has been testing its local range lows near $115,800. Unfortunately, it gave way over the weekend, and the leading cryptocurrency fell to $112,000.
Interestingly, altcoins followed suit, seemingly abandoning the bullish momentum they had ridden during this altseason. This raises the question of whether this decline is just a break in the altseason or the end altogether.
Bitcoin Falls Below Local Support
Bitcoin’s decline follows persistent market weakness amid aggressive speculative risk rotation toward ether (ETH) and other altcoins. According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the move signals a shift in market structure and rising downside vulnerability.
The market’s current condition suggests that speculative appetite is declining across sectors, with cautious sentiment and elevated leverage. Before any catalysts can trigger strong directional momentum, there could be a period of reduced volatility and consolidation. This could be exacerbated as bitcoin’s loss of range support acts as resistance.
Although BTC is struggling and may continue to do so in the meantime, altcoins are having it worse. Despite recent selling pressure, bitcoin’s market cap has remained above $2.2 trillion, accounting for almost double its 2021 cycle peak. ETH and the aggregate altcoin market, on the other hand, have failed to exceed their 2021 highs. This suggests that investors have remained cautious even while rotating their capital into high-beta and less mature assets.
Is Altseason Dead?
Worse still, altcoins performed worse than bitcoin last week. While BTC has fallen just 8.9% from its all-time high, ETH closed last week with a 9.7% plunge. The OTHERS index, which tracks the broader altcoin market aside the top ten, showed that this group of assets closed the week 11.5% in the red. ETH has plummeted 15% from its recent local peak, while the OTHER index is down 18.7% below its cycle high.
Furthermore, the OTHERS index has shed roughly $59 billion in value over the last 11 days, reflecting rapid derisking among investors.
“This contraction signals a clear waning of speculative appetite in the altcoin sector, which had seen a rapid expansion of open interest throughout July, even as BTC remained trapped within a tight trading range,” Bitfinex analysts stated.
Meanwhile, only two large-cap assets are in the green over the last two trading weeks: ENA, the utility token of the synthetic dollar protocol, Ethena, and PENGU, the native asset of the non-fungible token (NFT) project, Pudgy Penguins. Although both assets are up 14.5% and 8.4%, respectively, they are also down from their all-time highs.