Bitcoin is trading at $78.3k as the first weekend of May opens. It has done something it has not managed since the cycle peak, which is closing above the 100-day MA and breaking out of a long-term descending channel that contained the entire bearish trend.
The move comes alongside strong daily RSI readings, a successful retest of the breakout level on the 4-hour chart, and an on-chain supply picture that explains precisely why the road ahead gets harder from here, and why it may be worth it anyway.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, $BTC has been pushing toward the higher boundary of the mid-term ascending channel after reclaiming the 100-day moving average, which has descended to the $72k zone. The RSI is climbing toward 70, showing consistent bullish readings while still leaving room for follow-through, as an overbought state has not been reached yet.
The immediate test remains the $80k supply zone, which has capped the price on every approach since February. A clean daily close above this area would open the path toward the $90k level, with the 200-day moving average also in the way near the $85k mark. On the downside, the lower boundary of the current zone at $75k is now the first line of support to defend, followed by the 100-day moving average located just below this level.
$BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows a textbook post-breakout structure. The asset broke above the $75k level, pulled back to retest it, which is labeled explicitly on the chart, and has since pushed back toward the $79k region with the RSI also climbing above 60, showing a clear bullish shift in momentum. The structure is clean, and the retest adds conviction to the move.
The upper channel boundary and the $80k psychological level are converging as the immediate ceiling. A 4-hour close above the recent highs near $79.5k, with the RSI also holding below the overbought region, keeps the bullish structure intact and targets the $82k-$84k supply zone above. In case of any pullback, the $75k area can prove critical again, as it’s the major nearby support level on this timeframe.
On-Chain Analysis
With 64.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply currently in profit, the recovery from the February low has made meaningful progress, but the remaining 35.8% underwater tells the more important story. The bulk of that loss-making supply was acquired between $80k and $125k during the late 2025 distribution phase, meaning $BTC is now entering the price range where a large cohort of holders approaches breakeven, and the incentive to sell intensifies.
Historically, crossing the 75–80% supply-in-profit threshold has marked the point where correction-driven overhead pressure meaningfully subsides, and momentum can sustain. The current reading of 64.2% confirms that the threshold has not yet been reached, which explains why the $80k–$90k zone has acted as such a stubborn ceiling.
Each push higher converts more underwater holders into profit-takers, but it also reduces the pool of forced sellers, and if the price can clear $80k, the supply-in-profit curve could accelerate rapidly toward levels that have historically preceded the next significant leg higher.
