With the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) focusing on institutional reforms rather than XRP spot ETF approval, XRP investors’ hopes are fading.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, by the end of July the probability of approval for an XRP spot ETF had dropped to just 7%, down from 50% in April and 32% at the beginning of July.
The SEC is currently working on guidelines that would streamline the approval process for crypto spot ETFs, according to Reuters, but the regulatory pipeline suggests that any ETF approvals are unlikely to come soon.
The SEC’s initial 12-page guidance document, published earlier this month, outlined standards for what ETFs must disclose. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called the existence of the guidance “an indication of the process of crypto ETFs integrating into the traditional financial system.”
However, the main development that the markets are eagerly waiting for is hidden in the second directive, which has not yet been published. This document is expected to include new listing standards that will replace the current 19b-4 application process. It is said that negotiations within the SEC are ongoing and this second document may be completed in the fall. Therefore, market expectations for a new crypto ETF approval have also been postponed to these dates.
In this context, there were some expectations that a Solana (SOL)-based ETF could be the first product to be approved. The staking-based Solana ETF, which was launched in the past period, was considered the beginning of the “crypto ETF summer.” However, the SEC’s current approach seems to have weakened these hopes for now.
*This is not investment advice.