San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said today that the Fed will need to cut interest rates soon, given the slowing labor market and the impact of tariffs on inflation, which she believes will be short-term.
Daly said, “Inflation is gradually declining even without customs duties. As the economy slows and monetary policy remains tight, we anticipate inflation will continue its downward trend.” While acknowledging that customs duties will push inflation up in the short term, Daly noted that this effect will not be permanent.
Daly also highlighted the weakening labor market, saying, “The labor market is already weak. A further slowdown would be concerning, because once the labor market deteriorates, it typically declines quickly and sharply. All of this suggests that monetary policy will need to be adjusted in the coming months.”
Daly also noted that much work remains to be done to reduce inflation to the 2% target. He stated that monetary policy must be recalibrated to address various risks affecting the Fed’s targets, and that action must be taken before uncertainties are fully resolved.
“Tariffs are unlikely to push up inflation permanently over the long term. Therefore, monetary policy may not need to counteract this effect,” Daly said.
*This is not investment advice.