Bitcoin ($BTC) deepened six-week lows at Friday’s Wall Street open as US stock markets diverged to all-time highs.
Key points:
- Bitcoin sinks closer to $72,000 as analysis eyes “crucial” $BTC price levels.
- US-Iran ceasefire talks send stocks to even higher records as the crypto divergence continues.
- Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average gains significance as a battleground for bulls.
$BTC price analysis sees “crucial” range now in play
Data from TradingView showed $BTC/USD dropping to $72,395 on Bitstamp to start the US TradFi trading session.
$BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Continuing a losing streak from recent weeks, the pair again saw downside pressure, even as stocks surged further into price discovery.
The S&P 500 started Friday with new record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average did likewise.
S&P 500 vs. Dow Jones one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Anticipation of a lasting ceasefire between the US and Iran drove the momentum, even as military strikes continued.
Commenting, trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe argued that geopolitical changes could still save the Bitcoin price trend.
“Bitcoin is about to collapse to lows, if this level of support doesn’t hold. That’s just the reality,” he wrote in a post on X.
“Anything between $72,000-74,000 is crucial and could be the end of the correction, especially if Trump comes with a new deal –> rates go down –> oil goes down –> risk-on assets (especially crypto) go higher.”
$BTC/$USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Van de Poppe suggested that $77,000 was the line in the sand to start the “next leg upwards.”
“If that doesn’t happen, then we’re about to witness another leg towards the lows and probably new lows on the altcoin markets,” he added.
Weekly close tipped to see extra volatility
Continuing the general sense of caution among Bitcoin market participants, trading account CGT Trader warned that $BTC long positions could face liquidation next.
Related: Bitcoin bids farewell to CME futures gaps with $67K still on radar
“Long squeeze loading …. Price continues to range while funding stays heavily positive and open interest keeps declining. That usually suggests the market is still leaning aggressively long, even as some participants are already closing positions and derisking,” an X post read.
“At the same time, spot volume continues to fade, which points toward underlying weakness. Given these conditions, a long squeeze looks increasingly likely.”
Binance $BTC/$USDT futures order-book data. Source: CGT Trader/X
Data from CoinGlass showed the total 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations passing $200 million at the time of writing.
Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Looking ahead, trading resource Material Indicators told followers to “expect volatility” on Bitcoin as Sunday’s joint daily, weekly and monthly close approached.
“We have a cluster of liquidations around $76k and a developing H & S pattern that could take price down to the Q2 Timescape R/S Levels in the$68k – $69k range,” it noted, referring to data from its proprietary trading tools.
“The big tells will be whether bulls can rally from the 100 DMA, and how Weekly RSI is trending after the W close.”
$BTC/USD one-hour chart with 100-day SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Material Indicators referenced the 100-day simple moving average, currently at $72,972.
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