Bitcoin has dropped below key support levels and swept the February lows, putting traders on alert for the next major move. While sellers remain in control, analysts are watching for signs that extreme bearish positioning could trigger a sharp rebound.
Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support as CME Chart Mirrors 2022 Setup
Bitcoin ($BTC) is approaching a major technical decision point after closing just below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), according to analyst SuperBitcoinBro. The chart shows $BTC still holding above a long-term rising trendline that connects the 2022 and 2023 cycle lows.
Bitcoin CME Futures Weekly Chart ($BTC). Source: SuperBitcoinBro on X
The analysis compares the current structure to the market bottom that formed after the FTX collapse in late 2022. In both cases, $BTC broke out of a prolonged downtrend and later returned to retest the breakout area before attempting a larger recovery.
The 200-week SMA, shown in orange, remains one of the most closely watched long-term indicators on the chart. While $BTC closed slightly below this level, it continues to trade near the intersection of the moving average and the multi-year ascending trendline. This area represents a significant support zone.
The chart also highlights a long-term downtrend line that was previously broken during the bull market advance. According to the analysis, Bitcoin is now retesting that former resistance as potential support, a pattern often monitored for confirmation of larger trend changes.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a developing bullish divergence. While price recently moved lower, the RSI formed higher lows, indicating weakening downside momentum compared with previous declines.
For now, the focus remains on whether Bitcoin can hold above the long-term trendline and successfully defend the retest area. A sustained hold would strengthen the comparison with the 2022 bottom structure, while a breakdown would place additional pressure on the broader market outlook.
Bitcoin Sweeps $60K as Traders Watch for Potential Short Squeeze
Bitcoin ($BTC) has broken below the $60,000 level and swept the February lows, extending a correction that has seen multiple support zones fail. According to analyst Kaz, sellers remain in control for now, but positioning data suggests conditions may be developing for a sharp relief rally.
Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart ($BTC/USDT). Source: Kaz on X / TradingView
The chart shows $BTC losing support near $63,000 before falling through the $60,000 area. What initially appeared to be a stabilization range failed to hold, resulting in another wave of downside pressure.
Market positioning data also weakened during the decline. Aggregated Open Interest trended lower, indicating traders closed positions as price moved down. At the same time, perpetual futures cumulative volume delta (Perps CVD) continued to deteriorate, showing aggressive selling activity in the derivatives market.
Spot market activity also remained under pressure. Spot CVD reached extreme negative readings, although the chart suggests selling has started to flatten rather than accelerate further. In addition, liquidation data shows another significant long-position flush, forcing out traders who remained positioned for a rebound after previous declines.
Despite the bearish structure, Kaz notes that extreme positioning often creates conditions for powerful reversals. According to the analysis, a successful reclaim of the $62,000 area could trap newly opened short positions and trigger a move toward the next major resistance zone around $68,200.
For now, the data continues to favor sellers. However, the combination of heavy long liquidations, extreme futures positioning, and deeply negative spot flows suggests the market may be approaching conditions where a relief bounce becomes increasingly likely.
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