Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum is looking bearish—and could turn negative unless prices continue to rise, according to an ARK Invest report.
Capital flows decreased during the second quarter, with the number of new buyers entering the market continuing to decline.
ARK Invest analysts wrote that data suggests Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value, or MVRV ratio, is currently near the two-year moving average. That’s a stark contrast to the positive momentum that has dominated 2024 and much of 2025.
Bitcoin has failed to reach fresh all-time highs since May, despite the S&P 500 notching several new records over the past month. Despite this, ARK Invest argues there are reasons for Bitcoin traders to be cheerful.
The number of long-term BTC holders has accelerated to a 15-year high indicating “growing market conviction” in this cryptocurrency’s role as a store of value. Addresses that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days now represent 74% of total supply.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at about $109,000. That contrasts with its main zone of support between $96,000 and $99,000, which means many short-term holders are sitting on paper profits. Its current price is also considerably above the 200-day moving average of $96,278, and the on-chain mean of $71,393.
BTC’s share of the overall crypto market is also trending higher as altcoins underperform—reaching 65% for the first time since late 2020.
Looking at the wider economy, ARK Invest noted that inflation is continually surprising to the downside, with the annualized Consumer Price Index averaging “well below expectations” at 1.5% between February and May. This could indicate that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates.
With Bitcoin’s price volatility sinking to historical lows, QCP Capital analysts warned yesterday that investors should “beware the quiet”—but be prepared for “fireworks” in the second half of this year.