At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $62,557, below its power law fair value of $134,761 and beneath the lower band of $67,380. According to analyst Mark Harvey, Bitcoin has rarely deviated this far from the power law model. Each time it reached this level of undervaluation relative to the model, a significant recovery followed.
The upper band currently sits at $404,283, suggesting that a rally toward the top of the power law range would place Bitcoin above $400,000.
The Long-Term Case
The analyst shared the power law chart with a straightforward observation. Bitcoin is up only from here, according to the model. The gap between the current price and fair value is historically unusual and has consistently resolved to the upside over time.
The power law formula calculates Bitcoin’s expected price based purely on the number of days since its genesis block, producing a smooth long-term growth curve that Bitcoin has tracked consistently across multiple cycles.
The Short-Term Problem
Despite the bullish long-term picture, short-term conditions remain challenging. The SpaceX IPO is being described as a major liquidity event pulling capital away from every risk asset simultaneously.
Why an Analyst Says $44,000 Is Coming First
Analyst Jason Williams posted on X that the Bitcoin bottom is not yet in, backed by historical data across every previous cycle.
The Realised Price, which measures the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, currently sits at $53,600. Bitcoin has never bottomed in any cycle without first trading below the Realised Price. The historical pattern:
- 2011: Bottomed 58% below Realised Price
- 2015: Bottomed 49% below Realised Price
- 2018: Bottomed 47% below Realised Price
- 2022: Bottomed 34% below Realised Price
The percentage deviation is shrinking each cycle. Williams projects the next bottom at approximately 17% below the current Realised Price, producing a target of $44,488.
Investor Gary Cardone warned that Bitcoin is weak and that without buyers, sellers will get increasingly aggressive. He argued that Bitcoin’s weakness could become more apparent in the coming days and warned that a lack of buying demand may encourage increasingly aggressive selling.
Related: How Much BTC Would You Need To Become A Millionaire By 2030?
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