We Asked 2 AIs: Is SpaceX’s IPO Bullish or Bearish for Bitcoin? (The Answer Was Dubious)

After filing with the SEC in mid-May, the Elon Musk-led company made history on Friday, debuting at a massive valuation of nearly $2 trillion on Wall Street.

The spaceflight and telecommunications behemoth reported recently that it continues to hold bitcoin on its balance sheet. The question now is whether this public listing is bullish or bearish for $BTC in the short and long term.

Bear Cases

The first AI we asked about its opinion was Gemini, which began by outlining what a “watershed moment” SpaceX’s IPO is for all financial markets. Interestingly, it believes the short-term narrative for $BTC is mostly bearish.

The reason is that raising $75 billion at its astronomical valuation means the capital “must be siphoned from elsewhere.” SpaceX’s IPO has at least one unique feature, since an unprecedented 30% of the offering has been reserved for retail investors. Everyday investors and crypto-native speculators have been “scrambling to raise cash to secure their allocation of SPCX at the fixed $135 entry price.”

Gemini believes this cash often comes from other high-beta, risk-on assets, such as crypto. Perhaps that’s why bitcoin and the alts have dumped in the past few weeks leading up to the event, as “portfolios were aggressively rebalanced.”

“If a trader needs liquid capital to buy into the biggest tech narrative of the decade, taking profits on $BTC, ETH, or XRP is one of the fastest ways to get it,” said Gemini.

ChatGPT agreed to a large extent, noting that “SpaceX’s IPO could actually be bearish for bitcoin” in the short term. It also warned that a large portion of SPCX investments could come from former crypto positions.

“When a once-in-a-generation IPO appears, some money that might have gone into $BTC, crypto stocks, or altcoins can temporarily rotate into the new equity story instead,” warned OpenAI’s platform.

Long-Term Bullish

Both AIs, though, argued that the long-term picture is “more bullish.” ChatGPT said the biggest reason is SpaceX’s own exposure to $BTC. As reported recently, the company said in its IPO filing that it still owns 18,712 $BTC on its balance sheet, making it one of the largest corporate holders of the asset.

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“If SpaceX becomes one of the largest public companies in the US while holding a billion-dollar bitcoin position, it strengthens the argument that $BTC has become a legitimate treasury asset for major corporations.”

Gemini added that an oversubscribed $1.75 trillion tech IPO is the ultimate risk-on indicator as it proves that there is a “voracious, insatiable appetite for speculative, future-facing technology.” When traditional equities demonstrate this level of aggressive capital deployment, it has historically spilled over into crypto.

Additionally, it noted that the IPO will generate billions in realized gains for early private investors, venture capitalists, and SpaceX employees. Historically, newly minted tech millionaires look for asymmetric bets to park their capital, which could be fresh liquidity toward bitcoin and some major altcoins.

In conclusion, Gemini said the IPO will be a “double-edged sword” for bitcoin, where the bearish sentiment might prevail at first but the broader scale looks more favorable. ChatGPT shared a similar opinion, especially if SpaceX retains its $BTC exposure.