Global markets, including cryptocurrency markets, were focused on the US-Iran agreement being signed on Friday. However, with the details of the agreement unclear, markets exhibited mixed performance, and today all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate decision.
Accordingly, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision for June today, followed by an oral statement from the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.
This will be Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and interest rate decision as FED chairman. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $65,000 ahead of Warsh’s first interest rate decision, while altcoins are rising.
After three consecutive interest rate cuts that began in September last year, the Fed has not made any interest rate cuts in 2026. This month, the Fed is expected to keep its policy interest rate range stable at 3.50–3.75 percent.
When Will the FED’s June Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
The Fed will announce its June interest rate decision on June 17, 2026 at 9:00 PM Turkish time.
Following the decision, FED Chairman Kevin Warsh will make a verbal statement at 9:30 PM.
In Which Direction Are Expectations Focusing?
Since this is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, attention is expected to be focused more on the messages Warsh will deliver than on the interest rate decision and policy statement.
While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting, attention will be focused on the tone of Warsh’s initial verbal guidance.
Analysts believe the Fed may revise its growth forecasts downwards and its inflation forecasts upwards. At this point, analysts point out that geopolitical developments are the most important factor complicating the Fed’s task.
At this point, analyst Andre Jikh noted that if Warsh describes inflation as temporary or “short-lived,” markets could interpret this as a signal of loose monetary policy. According to the analyst, such a message could increase expectations of looser monetary policy later in the year and potentially support Bitcoin, stocks, and other risky assets.
However, if Warsh specifically warns in his speech that inflation will be persistent due to rising energy costs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, investors may perceive this message as a hawkish approach. This could put pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies in the short term.
Finally, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at its June meeting is priced at 99.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase is priced at 0.4%. In contrast, for the July meeting, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is priced at 91%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase is priced at 9%.
*This is not investment advice.
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