- Weiss Crypto’s Juan Villaverde adds that gold price trends may serve as a leading indicator for Bitcoin price movements, based on historical patterns.
- Villaverde suggests that if gold continues its rally into 2025, BTC could peak by November 2025, potentially reaching $150,000–$250,000.
Global bullion markets witnessed a milestone as gold prices surged beyond $3,500 per ounce, setting a fresh all-time record. Over the last year, the precious metal has increased by approximately 43%, or more than twice the rate of returns of the S&P 500.
Bitcoin & Gold Correlation Dynamics
Market analysts cite a combination of macroeconomic factors as the reason behind the rally, although some of them also refer to the dynamics of the crypto market in connection with the metal. Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal has contended that Bitcoin has largely been driven by the growing liquidity in the world, geopolitical tensions, and recessionary forces, and guesses that those factors may be behind as much as 90% of Bitcoin market activity, as mentioned in our previous story.
Also, analysts like Egrag Crypto have shared this opinion with liquidity cycles historically being strongly associated with asset price valuation. However, not all experts agree that liquidity is the only key driver.
Juan Villaverde of Weiss Crypto has mentioned gold as a lesser-known but potent leading indicator for Bitcoin. On the basis of a decades-long history of prices, Villaverde argues that major troughs of gold can presage major Bitcoin bottoms by a few months.
In his study, he cites how in early 2019, gold unfortunately dropped to one of the lowest positions in years even after a slight rebound in the middle of 2018. This was around the time when Bitcoin was stagnating close to cycle lows since its December 2018 low.
Such a coincidence was even more evident in 2021: Bitcoin was stable after hitting a new high in November of the same year, while gold was not able to break new records. Soon, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop, which was reflected in the case of gold previously.
Villaverde elaborates that this relationship has not been perfect. As an example, such a trend was interrupted in the short term with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, as both markets responded to global uncertainty in different ways. Still, he insists that the path of gold tends to give the next six months of direction of Bitcoin.
What’s Next For BTC?
According to the current gold rally, Villaverde expects that Bitcoin might reach a major price peak by late November 2025, but does not make a specific price prediction, as mentioned in our previous post. Other industry estimates are slightly more modern, with a big spread of between $150,000 to surely as much as $250,000, according to Villaverde.
The larger challenge could come in 2026. Should gold reach higher than it did in April 2025 at the height of $3,450, then he thinks that Bitcoin has another surge to manage. Otherwise, there might have been signs of the impending end of the current crypto bull run.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was at $116,769.88, a 0.35% gain over the last 24 hours with a 7% monthly profit. The volume of trading is still high, reaching approximately $62.54 billion.