Bitcoin Crash: Strategy Says It's Ready for Worst-Case Scenario

As the Bitcoin price trades nearly 49% below its all-time high, Strategy, the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin led by Michael Saylor, has shared a stress test of its Bitcoin-focused capital structure, indicating the Bitcoin crash scenario where it will stay unaffected.

In a recent X post, Strategy stated that at its current capital structure, Bitcoin could decline by 11.4% annually for 5.8 consecutive years, and it would still be able to fully fund its interest payments and preferred stock dividends while maintaining a 1.0x $BTC rating.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,428 while MSTR sits about 84% below its November 2024 peak.

As the crypto market grapples with a bear market that began in October 2025, Strategy uses a potential Bitcoin drop scenario that will span nearly six years to indicate that it will survive a prolonged downtrend in the market while continuing to meet its financial obligations.

The scenario does not consider a one-time sharp crash but rather a sustained annual decline of 11.4% over nearly six years. Even under those conditions, Strategy says it would continue meeting its debt interest obligations and preferred dividend commitments without falling below its targeted 1.0x $BTC rating.

Strategy launches overhaul

Strategy has seen a recent overhaul of its financing model underpinning its Bitcoin strategy. Key to the effort is restoring the price of the company’s preferred shares, Stretch, or STRF. The overhaul also seeks to allow the firm to resume buying Bitcoin.

Strategy has also launched a metric overhaul as it continues to refine its guidance over the past year in response to the current bear market, creating a new market metrics framework that replaces gross $BTC-based figures with net equivalents that account for the company’s growing preferred stock and convertible debt obligations.

In the past week, the Bitcoin Security Consortium, an initiative dedicated to supporting the long-term security and resilience of the Bitcoin network, was announced, backed by an aggregate $15 million in member pledges over the next three years. Founding members are Anchorage Digital, ARK Invest, BlackRock, Block, Blockstream, Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, Galaxy, and Strategy.