Bitcoin price today remained resilient above the $64,000 support zone as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting. While $BTC has traded within a narrow range over the past two weeks, that consolidation could soon end as markets prepare for one of the most influential macro events of the quarter. Although the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, traders are closely watching the central bank’s policy outlook for clues on the direction of liquidity, inflation and financial conditions, all of which could determine Bitcoin’s next major move.
What to Expect From Today’s FOMC Meeting?
The Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting is expected to be the biggest macro catalyst for Bitcoin today, with investors preparing for increased volatility once the decision is announced. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 68.5% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, while a 31.5% chance remains for a 25-basis-point rate hike, reflecting greater uncertainty than in recent meetings.
🚨🚨🚨 The #FOMC meeting is due in 8 hours. 29th July.
Odds for 0 BPS change in rates are at 68.5% with 31.5% risk for 25 BPS rate hike.
If we get 25 BPS hike, then expect market to dump further.
What do you think? Pause or Hike? pic.twitter.com/EfBhTmuhtz
— Seth (@seth_fin) July 29, 2026
However, traders are likely to focus less on the rate decision itself and more on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy outlook. Markets will closely analyse his comments for clues on inflation, economic growth and the future path of monetary policy. A dovish tone could improve liquidity expectations and boost demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, while a hawkish stance may strengthen the US dollar and trigger short-term selling pressure across both equities and cryptocurrencies. As Bitcoin trades near a key technical resistance, today’s FOMC outcome could determine its next major directional move.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can $BTC Finally Break Above $68K?
While macro uncertainty has kept traders on the sidelines, Bitcoin’s price structure continues to signal resilience. $BTC has repeatedly defended the $64,000 demand zone, highlighting sustained buying interest despite the absence of a fresh bullish catalyst. The continued formation of higher lows on the daily chart suggests buyers remain in control, with the broader uptrend still intact.
Momentum indicators also support the bullish case. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 level, reflecting healthy buying momentum rather than exhaustion, while Bitcoin continues to trade above its key short-term moving averages. The immediate challenge for bulls remains the $67,500-$68,000 resistance zone, where $BTC has faced multiple rejections throughout July. A dovish interpretation of the Fed’s policy statement could provide the catalyst needed to invalidate this consolidation and trigger a breakout toward $73,000. A sustained move above that level would expose the next major upside target around $80,000.
However, if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance than markets expect, Bitcoin price could revisit the $64,000 support area. Unless that level is decisively broken, such a move would likely represent a healthy retest of demand rather than a reversal of the broader bullish trend.
All Eyes Shift to the Fed
Bitcoin ($BTC) enters today’s FOMC meeting with a constructive chart setup, but its next move will ultimately depend on how markets interpret the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. While an unchanged rate decision is largely priced in, any dovish shift in the Fed’s guidance could reignite buying momentum and push $BTC above $68,000, opening the door to $73,000. Conversely, a hawkish surprise may trigger near-term volatility, although Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure is expected to remain intact as long as the $64,000 support continues to hold.