Bernstein cut its price target on Circle Internet Group ) to $140 from $190 Wednesday but kept its Outperform rating, saying the Open USD consortium threat that hammered the stock will fade.
Why Bernstein Cut The Target But Kept The Bull Case?
Analyst Gautam Chhugani said in the note cited by The Block that Circle’s second quarter came in broadly flat, with $USDC supply ending Q2 at roughly $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1.
Bernstein slashed its end-of-2026 $USDC supply estimate by 37% to $83 billion and its 2028 figure by 40% to roughly $170 billion, cutting its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 12% to $602 million.
At current prices, the $140 target still implies roughly 118% upside. Bernstein kept its 10-year $USDC supply growth rate at 32%, with total stablecoin supply expected to reach $4 trillion by 2035 and Circle holding roughly a 30% share.
Why Bernstein Says The Open USD Threat Is Overstated?
Bernstein pushed back, noting Circle has been signing memorandums of understanding with the same entities named in the alliance.
A Samsung official said there were no formal consultations on Open USD and the company did not know what role it would play, a comment Bernstein read as evidence the consortium lacks real cohesion.
Visa management said on its latest earnings call it would remain multi-coin and multi-chain rather than backing a single stablecoin.
The Hyperliquid Deal Is The Clearest Drag On Revenue
Circle and Coinbase ) agreed in May to redirect roughly 90% of reserve income earned on $USDC held on Hyperliquid back to the exchange, according to the note.
$USDC balances on Hyperliquid climbed from $5 billion to more than $6 billion, with roughly $190 million in annual reserve income flowing to the exchange. The full margin impact hits in Q3.
Why Good News Has Not Helped CRCL?
Circle has had two major positive developments in two weeks that the stock ignored. Circle’s national trust bank approval on July 15 sent CRCL down 4.8% that day, .
Recent , which made Circle the largest blockchain patent holder in the US, produced a similar non-reaction.
Two milestones in two weeks and CRCL is still pressing into its last support zone before the post-IPO base breaks entirely.
Where Does CRCL Stand Ahead Of Earnings?
CRCL drops to $62.75 Wednesday, pressing into the $60 to $62 demand zone, the last meaningful support before the stock loses its post-IPO base entirely.
All four major EMAs sit overhead as resistance: 20-day at $66.48, 50-day at $76.18, 100-day at $84.91, and 200-day at $100.40.
Key levels for CRCL:
- $66.48 — 20-day EMA, first resistance above
- $76.18 — 50-day EMA, next ceiling
- $60 to $62 — demand zone that must hold into earnings
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