Prediction market traders are betting that Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will extend its rally over the coming month, pushing the stock toward the $250 mark.
In line with this outlook, Polymarket data assigned the AI chipmaker a 50% probability of closing August above $240, implying upside of roughly 22% from its press-time price of $197.
However, traders are becoming more cautious about gains beyond that level. To this end, Polymarket assigned a 26% probability that Nvidia will finish above $248, while the odds of a close above $256 drop sharply to just 4%.
At the same time, the market prices a 52% chance of the stock ending below $200 and a 54% probability of closing below $184, highlighting expectations for increased volatility ahead of the company’s next earnings report.
Nvidia stock fundamentals
Despite the mixed short-term positioning, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia’s long-term growth prospects.
Analysts expect the technology company to generate between $388 billion and $394 billion in revenue during fiscal 2027, representing annual growth of more than 80%. Earnings per share are also forecast to climb to between $9 and $9.09, nearly doubling from the previous fiscal year.
Looking further ahead, consensus estimates call for fiscal 2028 revenue of between $542 billion and $561 billion, alongside earnings per share of $12.56 to $12.87. Those projections reflect expectations that AI infrastructure spending will remain elevated, even as growth gradually normalizes from recent record levels.
Meanwhile, Nvidia continues to benefit from its dominant position in the AI semiconductor market.
The company’s data center segment generates more than 90% of total revenue, while demand for Blackwell processors remains strong enough to keep production effectively sold out into 2027.
In addition, investors are closely watching the rollout of Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform, which is expected to begin shipping in the second half of 2026.
The launch coincides with projections that hyperscale cloud providers will spend about $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year, providing another tailwind for Nvidia’s GPUs, networking products, and AI software ecosystem.
Impact of Nvidia’s next earnings
Meanwhile, Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings report, expected in late August, is likely to determine whether the stock can meet the market’s lofty expectations.
Analysts currently forecast quarterly revenue of between $91 billion and $102 billion, with investors paying close attention to guidance on Blackwell shipments, Vera Rubin production, and gross margins.
Although Nvidia still faces risks from export restrictions, custom AI chips, and any slowdown in hyperscaler spending, its strong earnings outlook and continued leadership in AI infrastructure continue to underpin bullish sentiment.